In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. The study area encompasses six . The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Increase of Extreme Drought over Ethiopia under Climate Warming, Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa, Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling, Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data, Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPsThe Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan, Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal, Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya, Climate change impacts on land use in Gadaref and North Kordofan States and future Desert sheep distribution in Sudan, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa, Trends and Changes in Recent and Future Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration in Benin (West Africa), Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley, Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow within the Alabama River Basin, Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT, Statistical downscaling of global circulation models to assess future climate changes in the Black Volta basin of Ghana, Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Using a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model in Cte dIvoire: Case of the Aghien Lagoon, Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios, Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks, Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive, Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq, Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya, Recurrence Spectra of European Temperature in Historical Climate Simulations, Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. 2014). High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. According to Al-Bakri et al. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. 2012; Fazzini et al. Here are the average temperatures. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. 2015). After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. 2015). 33 days from submission to first decision on average. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. 2014). 2012). The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. 2016). In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. 2015). The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. Figure 1. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. 2005). To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. Data and Methods 3.1. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. 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